Increased incidence of malignancies in Sweden after the Chernobyl accident--a promoting effect?

BACKGROUND After the Chernobyl accident in 1986, as much as 5% of the released caesium-137 was deposited in Sweden due to a heavy rainfall 2 days after the event. A study of increased incidence of malignancies was initiated after the accident. METHODS The cohort included 1,137,106 inhabitants who were 0-60 years old in 1986 and lived in 8 counties of Sweden with the highest fallout of caesium-137. With the dwelling coordinate, GIS-technique and a digital map on caesium-137, each individual was matched for the exposure. Adjustments were made for several potential confounding factors. During the follow-up 33,851 malignancies was recorded 1988-1999. RESULTS Exposure categories were: 0-8 (reference), 9-23, 24-43, 44-66, 67-84, and > or =85 nGy/hr. The corresponding adjusted Mantel-Haenszel incidence rate ratios for total malignancies during follow-up amounted to 1.000, 0.997, 1.072, 1.114, 1.068, 1.125, respectively. The excess relative risk per 100 nGy/hr with the same adjustments and time period was 0.042 95% confidence limit 0.001;0.084. An excess for thyroid cancer or leukemia could not be ruled out. CONCLUSION Increased incidence of total malignancies possibly related to the fallout from the Chernobyl accident is seen.